Skip to content
RoundPatch

Open Rates Are Broken: The Email Marketing Metrics That Still Mean Something

If your open rate looks better than ever, it may not be your subject lines. It may be Apple's servers. Here is what to measure instead.

Printed marketing charts beside a laptop
Photo by Jakub Żerdzicki on Unsplash

Key takeaways

  • Apple Mail Privacy Protection preloads email content, triggering open tracking even when nobody reads the message.
  • Apple accounts for roughly half of tracked email opens in Litmus's market share data, so open rates are heavily inflated.
  • Clicks, conversions, revenue, replies and list health are more reliable measures of performance.
  • Avoid automations that depend on opens; trigger on clicks, visits or other real actions.

For years, the open rate was the first number anyone looked at after a send. It was simple, instant and easy to compare. Today, for many lists, it is mostly fiction.

What changed

Apple’s Mail Privacy Protection (MPP), introduced in 2021, preloads email content, including the invisible pixel used to track opens, through Apple’s servers. That happens whether or not the person ever reads the email (Litmus).

Apple is also the largest source of tracked opens. Litmus’s email client market share data has shown Apple accounting for around half of all tracked opens (Litmus). If a large share of your audience uses Apple Mail with MPP switched on, a large share of your “opens” never happened.

What that breaks

  • Open rate as a success metric. It trends upward regardless of quality.
  • Subject line tests judged on opens. The winner may simply be the version sent to more Apple users.
  • Automations triggered by opens. “If opened, send follow-up A” now fires for people who never read the first email.
  • Engagement-based list cleaning. Inactive subscribers can look active, so they stay on the list and quietly hurt deliverability.
  • Send-time optimisation based on open times.

The metrics that still mean something

Clicks and click-through rate

Clicks require a real person to act. Click-through rate (clicks divided by delivered emails) is now the most reliable engagement signal for most campaigns.

Conversions and revenue per email

What happened after the click: sign-ups, demo requests, purchases, revenue. This is the number the business actually cares about.

Replies

For sales-style emails and ABM outreach, a reply is the strongest signal of all.

Unsubscribes and complaints

These tell you when relevance or frequency is off. Google asks senders to keep spam rates under 0.1% and never reach 0.3% (Google).

List health

Growth, bounce rates and the share of subscribers who have clicked in the last few months. A list can grow while its genuinely engaged core shrinks.

Practical changes to make

  1. Report on clicks and conversions first. Keep opens as a rough directional signal at most, clearly labelled.
  2. Rebuild open-based automations to trigger on clicks, site visits, form fills or other real actions.
  3. Judge subject line tests on clicks or downstream conversions.
  4. Redefine “active subscriber” using clicks and site activity, not opens.
  5. Segment by client where possible, so you can compare engagement for Apple and non-Apple audiences.

Where AI helps

Email reporting now needs more context: several metrics, several segments, trends over time. AI is useful for:

  • summarising each campaign’s results in plain English, highlighting what changed;
  • spotting segments where clicks are falling even though opens look stable;
  • suggesting hypotheses for the next test;
  • building a consistent monthly report so trends are easy to see.

Always check the numbers behind any AI summary before it goes to a stakeholder.

The takeaway

Open rates are no longer a reliable measure of whether people read your emails. Shift your reporting and your automations to real actions such as clicks, conversions and replies, and you will get a much more honest picture of what your email programme achieves.

End-to-end reporting and analysis is part of our email marketing service. For the broader reporting approach, read campaign reporting with AI.

Frequently asked questions

Why are email open rates unreliable?

Apple Mail Privacy Protection loads email content, including tracking pixels, through Apple's servers whether or not the subscriber reads the email. For audiences with many Apple Mail users, this inflates open rates significantly.

What email metrics should I track instead of open rate?

Click-through rate, click-to-conversion rate, conversions and revenue per email, reply rate for sales emails, unsubscribe and complaint rates, and list growth and engagement over time.

Should I still A/B test subject lines?

Yes, but judge them on clicks or conversions rather than opens, or use a sample that excludes machine-generated opens where your platform supports it.

Sources

  1. Litmus, Apple Mail Privacy Protection: what it means for email marketers
  2. Litmus, Email client market share
  3. Google, Email sender guidelines
RoundPatch Editorial

Insights from the RoundPatch team — a boutique group of senior specialists in marketing design, UI/UX, web development, email marketing and AI-powered personalization.

Have a launch coming up?

Tell us what you need. We’ll come back with a clear plan, timeline and next steps.

Start a project
Chat with us